Yesterday Alan asked some questions surrounding education and the political fallout from Bill Ritter’s stunning announcement. I admit that much of the inner workings of politics — especially Democratic Party politics — remains a mystery to me, but given the late-breaking news that Ken Salazar is out and John Hickenlooper likely in, I decided to take some quick early stabs:

1. Does the lack of a Democrat incumbent help, hurt or have no effect on Colorado’s Race to the Top application?

Probably no effect. But if anything, I believe it might help a little if Ritter indeed stays attuned to the important policy discussions without the election year distractions. Then again, hard-liners in his own party might be more prone to challenge Ritter on some issues now that he is a lame duck. So if nothing else, Race to the Top likely just got more interesting here in Colorado.

2. Who would be more likely — Scott McInnis or a new Democrat governor (Hickenlooper, Salazar, Romanoff, etc) — to modify or dismantle the entire CAP4K edifice?

Honestly, I see neither a new Republican nor Democratic administration wasting energy on trying to dismantle CAP4K in the short term — especially given budget realities for the next couple years. Modify CAP4K, though? Just a guess here, but give a slight edge to McInnis. He might make some tweaks on the edges. But under either scenario, education will remain too low on the state political agenda for much of an overhaul.

3. Which possible Democrat will be looked on most kindly by the Colorado Education Association? How influential will the CEA and other interest groups be in determining who gets the nod?

Ay, there’s the rub. Especially given Hickenlooper’s recent endorsements in the DPS school board race, and his less-than-enthusiasm for the labor agenda, I’m guessing the CEA would prefer a more reliable partisan like Rep. Ed Perlmutter as the nominee to rally the troops. But if union leaders are willing to be more pragmatic about the situation, they might sit on their hands in the primary and give the mayor a pass.

4. What does this portend for meaningful ed reform in Colorado?

I believe a McInnis-Hickenlooper race could be very competitive (if that’s indeed what unfolds). Whoever wins in November, let’s be optimistic about the outcome. When it comes to choice, charter schools, accountability and innovation, I believe either one would be at least as favorable to effective education reform as the current occupant of the governor’s mansion.

But if Hickenlooper indeed runs and gains the CEA’s support for the nomination by making concessions, then all bets are off. And if Hickenlooper adds to the week of surprises by taking his name out of contention, I’d just about might as well scratch what I’ve written in this post and start all over.

Bottom line: We’re left with plenty more questions than answers as we tread the murky darkness in 2010.

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